 Source:
Probability
Methods
(static) aggregate(pa1, pa2) → {number}
 Source:
Aggregates two probability estimates from independent sources about the occurrence of a single event a. It returns the aggregated probability of occurrence of the event a. The assumption here is that the two probabilities (estimates) are not correlated with each other and the common prior probability of a is 0.5.
For a detailed explanation, refer to the paper titled Bayesian Group Belief by Franz Dietrich published in Social Choice and Welfare October 2010, Volume 35, Issue 4, pp 595–626.
Example
aggregate( 0.5, 0.6 );
// returns 0.6
aggregate( 0.5, 0.4 );
// returns 0.4
aggregate( 0.6, 0.6 );
// returns 0.6923076923076923
aggregate( 0.4, 0.6 );
// returns 0.5
Parameters:
Name  Type  Description 

pa1 
number  first estimate of probability of occurrence of event a. 
pa2 
number  second estimate of probability of occurrence of event a. 
Returns:
the aggregated probability.
 Type
 number
(static) range4CI(successCount, totalCount, zscoreopt) → {object}
 Source:
Computes probability from the observed count of successes (successCount
) out of the total count (totalCount
)
along with its range for required level of Confidence Interval (CI) i.e. zscore
.
The range is the minimum and maximum probability values for given zscore
or CI.
These computations are based on approach specified in the Wilson's Notes on Probable Inference, The Law of Succession, and Statistical Inference published in ASA's Journal.
For quick reference, typical value of zscore
for 90% and 95% CI is approximately
1.645 and 1.960 respectively.
Example
range4CI( 1, 10 );
// returns {
// probability: 0.18518871952479238,
// min: 0.02263232984000629,
// max: 0.34774510920957846
// }
range4CI( 10, 100 );
// returns {
// probability: 0.1105389143431459,
// min: 0.06071598345043355,
// max: 0.16036184523585828
// }
Parameters:
Name  Type  Attributes  Default  Description 

successCount 
number  observed count of successes out of 

totalCount 
number  the total count. 

zscore 
number 
<optional> 
1.645

for the required level of CI. 
Returns:
containing probability
, min
and max
.
 Type
 object